Forest Ecology and Management

1) BackgroundUnderstanding how caterpillar communities vary within tree canopies is key to interpreting forest trophic dynamics and responses to environmental change, yet such variation remains poorly quantified due to the challenges of sampling in three dimensions. 2) AimsWe quantified within-canopy heterogeneity in caterpillar densities, diversity, and herbivory and explored relationships with host tree phenology and commonly used ground-based monitoring approaches. 3) MethodsUsing direct canopy access, we sampled branches from lower, middle, and upper canopy strata of 34 mature pedunculate oaks (Quercus robur) in Wytham Woods, UK, during the spring abundance peak over three consecutive years (2023-2025). We tested for vertical stratification in caterpillar community metrics, examined patterns in early instar distributions at emergence, assessed associations with host tree phenology across spatiotemporal scales, and evaluated how well ground-based methods (water and frass traps) reflect canopy communities. 4) ResultsVertical stratification was modest but varied among years: densities and species richness increased with canopy height in 2023, decreased in 2024, and were uniformly low across strata in 2025. Although within-crown budburst timing varied systematically, with upper branches bursting approximately two days earlier than lower branches, tree phenology did not explain within- or between-year variation in caterpillar communities. Frass trap data correlated moderately well with canopy caterpillar densities, whereas water traps showed weaker and less consistent relationships, reflecting behavioural and methodological biases. 5) ConclusionsCaterpillar communities showed no consistent patterns of vertical stratification across years, instead they are shaped more strongly by inter-annual and tree-level variation. Integrating targeted canopy sampling with scalable ground-based proxies could greatly improve monitoring of arboreal Lepidoptera and inform studies of trophic synchrony and wood-land resilience under environmental change.

Human land use has greatly affected the natural landscapes in most parts of the world, and Scandinavian industrial forestry has substantially altered the age structure of the boreal forest over the last 75 years. In this study, we analyzed 44 years of line transect counts of Capercaillie and Black grouse collected in an industrial forest landscape in central Sweden between 1980 and 2024. The area was heavily logged in the 1960s and 1970s, followed by large-scale replanting. A hierarchical Gompertz state-space model to assess long-term population dynamics of both species. The adult state model included a brood production submodel, and forest age structure, snow depth, vole abundance, and spring frost were covariates. Our results reveal strong density dependence and temporally variable environmental effects. Capercaillie and Black grouse exhibited contrasting decadal trends: Capercaillie increased markedly during the early study years, whereas Black grouse declined steeply before recovering later in the series. Increasing proportions of forest aged 21-40 years had a clearly positive effect on Capercaillie, whereas snow depth in the previous winter negatively influenced Capercaillie but not Black grouse. Brood production exhibited substantial interannual unexplained variation, although late spring frost reduced brood size in Capercaillie. Toward the end of the study, the two species reached similar levels of latent adult abundance, demonstrating that both can persist at sustainable densities across a broader range of forest structures than suggested in earlier studies.

O_LIThe global decline of natural forests is accompanied by a rapid expansion of commercial tree plantations, which are expected to further increase to meet growing demand for wood products. However, planted forests generally support lower biodiversity than natural forests, particularly when monospecific and intensively managed. In this context, broadleaved hedgerows have been proposed as a nature-based solution to enhance biodiversity within conifer-dominated plantation landscapes. Such features may be especially beneficial for small mammals, including rodents and shrews, which are key contributors to forest ecosystem functioning. However, their effects on small mammal communities remain largely unquantified. C_LIO_LIHere, we assessed variation in small mammal communities among habitat types within a native pine plantation-dominated landscape in southwestern France. Using a multi-year, multi-season survey, we compared species richness and abundance among plantation edges, broadleaved hedgerows embedded within plantations and natural broadleaved forests. We further tested whether environmental descriptors of hedgerow sites influenced dominant species and whether seasonal and interannual demographic dynamics modified habitat-related patterns. C_LIO_LIPine plantation edges and broadleaved hedgerows supported lower small mammal species richness than natural broadleaved forests and were dominated by two habitat generalists, Apodemus sylvaticus and Crocidura russula. This pattern was driven by the near absence of the forest specialist Clethrionomys glareolus. Hedgerows did not increase species richness relative to plantations, but provided favourable habitat for A. sylvaticus, which was scarce in pine plantation, while supporting fewer C. russula. Variation in hedgerow structure and composition further influenced A. sylvaticus abundance, while seasonal and interannual rodent population dynamics modulated habitat-related differences. C_LIO_LIOur results indicate that intensively managed pine plantations act as environmental filters, excluding forest-associated small mammals. While broadleaved hedgerows benefited one species, their capacity to restore forest-specialist communities was limited without broader landscape-scale interventions. These findings highlight both the ecological benefits and constraints of edge-based habitat interventions and provide guidance for designing and evaluating biodiversity-oriented management in plantation landscapes. C_LI

Large old trees are of eminent importance for organic carbon storage in forest ecosystems and thus play a role in mitigating climate change. Such trees also have an increased risk of internal stem decay and tree cavity formation, which promotes biodiversity, but complicates the prediction of their biomass and carbon stocks, which is usually done from stem diameter and tree height data applying allometric biomass functions. Since the extent of internal stem decay is known to vary widely between different forest ecosystems and data from moist temperate forests exhibited low significance of internal stem decay, we studied dry, frequently fire-exposed Pinus ponderosa forests in central Oregon to capture the other climatic extreme of temperate forests. We hypothesized high significance of internal stem decay for stand aboveground tree biomass, as we assumed widespread stem injury from fire. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that far more than the largest 1% of trees are necessary for 50% stand biomass, as this hypothesis is found in the literature, but has been challenged in other studies. We found low biomass loss due to internal stem decay by only ca. 1% suggesting that also for fire-prone temperate forests of western North America, biomass estimates based on allometric regression are reliable. The 1% largest trees-50% stand aboveground biomass hypothesis has to be rejection for our forests as long as only trees of a size are included that noteworthily contribute to stand biomass. This metrics strongly depends on regeneration density, which is not relevant for stand biomass.

Habitat fragmentation disrupts metapopulation dynamics by altering environmental conditions and constraining demographic processes critical for persistence and recruitment. In the dry Afromontane forests of northern Ethiopia, we investigated how natural and anthropogenic drivers affect seedlings, saplings, and mature tree dynamics of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata across 34 patches. We used dynamic occurrence models to quantify effects of patch area, altitude, browsing, and disturbance. Our results indicate that high disturbance reduces seedling occurrence probability lower disturbance sites has seedling in 30% of survey plots, high disturbance would bring this down to 10% (median = -1.322, 95% CI: -2.703 to -0.283). Disturbance makes seedling less likely to persist, while large patch size help seedling persists (median = -0.93, 9 5 % CrI -1.87 - -0.02). For mature individuals, disturbance was the only significant predictor of occurrence probability, suggesting greater resistance to environmental and spatial variability compared to earlier life stages. These findings emphasize that while mature trees display resilience, the successful regeneration of Olea europaea is constrained by disturbance, but current level of browsing is not a threat. Management strategies for conservation should prioritise reducing disturbance through community engagement and forest stewardship to enhance regeneration potential and ensure long-term population viability.

Carolinian old-growth forests in southwestern Ontario are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in Canada, yet regeneration of several canopy tree species is increasingly constrained by intense white-tailed deer browsing and changing disturbance regimes. Windstorms frequently uproot trees in this region, creating tip-up mounds that alter soil structure, drainage, and microtopography. These microsites may provide important opportunities for seedling establishment, but their role in forest regeneration remains poorly understood. This study examined how tip-up mound microsites differ from adjacent ground microsites in soil properties and how these differences influence seedling survival. A total of 84 tip-up mounds were sampled across several conservation areas in Hamilton, Ontario. For each mound, soil samples were collected from the mound top and adjacent forest floor and analyzed for soil moisture, pH, organic matter, and texture. Seedlings of two deer-preferred native species, red oak (Quercus rubra) and black cherry (Prunus serotina), were planted on mound tops and adjacent ground microsites, and their survival was monitored over the growing season. Ground microsites had significantly higher soil moisture and organic matter than mound tops, whereas mound tops were consistently drier. Seedling responses differed between species: red oak survival was higher on ground microsites, while black cherry survival was higher on mound tops. Logistic regression analyses indicated that soil moisture was the strongest predictor of seedling survival, with contrasting responses between the two species. These results suggest that tip-up mounds create distinct environmental conditions that selectively favor different regeneration strategies. As white-tailed deer browsing continues to suppress regeneration on the forest floor - particularly in areas of high deer activity and low wildlife species richness - while windthrow frequency rises under climate change, tip-up mounds are poised to become increasingly critical regeneration niches for species capable of establishing under drier, well-aerated microsite conditions.

Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi are well-known for their crucial roles in forest health and productivity, yet their responses to various forest management practices are understudied, particularly in oak-dominated forests. The purpose of this study was to better understand the effects of silvicultural treatments on the diversity and community composition of ECM fungi in an oak-hornbeam forest in northern Hungary. We analyzed ITS2 rDNA metabarcoding data of soil-borne fungi to compare richness and community composition of ECM fungi among forest treatment types (clear-cutting, gap-cutting, preparation-cutting, tree retention in clear-cut areas, and control) and between sampling years (2020 and 2021). We found 268 ECM fungal genotypes, with the most diverse phylogenetic clades being /russula-lactarius (52), /tomentella-thelephora (47), /inocybe (40), /sebacina (27), and /cortinarius (20). We found significant compositional difference of ECM fungi among silvicultural treatments in both years, with some variations in richness. There were also small, but still significant compositional differences between the two years. Treatment effect was partly explained by altered environmental variables, such as relative humidity and soil temperature. These results highlight the importance of forest structure and the abiotic environment in driving community dynamics of plant-symbiotic fungi, with potential implications for forest health and productivity.

Primary and old-growth forests are globally valued for their biodiversity, ecosystem services, and cultural significance. The EU Biodiversity Strategy and EU Forest Strategy for 2030 require strict protection of remaining primary and old-growth forests, yet they cover only about 3% of EU forest area and remain highly threatened. The European Commissions guidelines define old-growth forests using three main indicators--native tree species, deadwood, and large/old trees--supported by five complementary indicators. Implementing these indicators for boreal and hemiboreal old-growth forests in northern Europe currently lack science-based operational criteria that meet EU legal standards. We provide recommendations for implementing European Commissions indicators with science-based operational criteria and thresholds to minimize misclassification and ensure cost-effective conservation. Key thresholds include native species dominance, [≥]5% deadwood of the total wood volume, and [≥]20 large/old trees per hectare. Additional guidance is offered for regeneration patterns, structural complexity, microhabitats, and indicator species, emphasizing that all indicators should be applied collectively.

O_LICalluna vulgaris is often managed in the UK by rotational burning, but this practice has recently been banned on peat with depth greater than 30-40 cm. It is unclear how then to manage the large areas of Calluna on blanket bogs used for sport shooting because without managed burning, fuel loads and wildfire risk will increase as the Calluna ages within the artificially narrow age distributions created by burn management. C_LIO_LIWe developed a model of Calluna mortality and management to understand duration and persistence of post-management effects. This allows us to assess how long it will take to reach a more natural age structure which would allow increased diversity if management ceases. C_LIO_LIOur results show that management effects persist for around 50 years depending on site-specific mortality rates. Active management may therefore be needed either to mitigate the elevated risk of severe wildfire or to speed up this transition. C_LIO_LISome studies have employed, as unmanaged analogues, Calluna stands that were last managed <50 years ago, but such studies may have unintentionally biased their results by observing Calluna still in post-management recovery leading to an over-estimation of wildfire risk associated with more natural blanket bogs. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: with the banning of burning as a management tool for Calluna on deep peat, alternative management is now likely needed as our model shows it could take around 50 years for the Calluna to reach a more natural age distribution. Mowing can replicate some of the effects of managed burning but requires repeated intervention and may compress the peat surface from repeated machine tracking. Rewetting and Sphagnum reintroduction may offer a more sustainable management approach to lowering Calluna fuel loads and reducing severe wildfire risk by creating wetter sub-optimal conditions for Calluna growth and thereby altering the competitive balance between Sphagnum and Calluna. Further work is needed to assess the efficacy of rewetting in controlling fuel loads and how this varies with climate and local pressures. More broadly, this work highlights the need to quantify the persistence of past management regimes to understand ecological trajectories. C_LI

AimOur aim was to study the effects of energy availability and landscape habitat heterogeneity on bird taxonomic and functional gamma-diversity and propose conservation guidelines based on the results. LocationSouthern and Central Finland Time Period2009-2020 Major Taxa StudiedBirds MethodsWe derived biodiversity variables from bird monitoring line transects to assess the effects of latitude, longitude, and landscape composition, configuration, and heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales: 100, 500, 2,000, and 5,000 m. We tested the effects of these landscape metrics on the total community, bird ecological guilds (species richness and abundance), functional diversity, and overall species specialization index. ResultsWe found clear evidence supporting a positive effect of energy (latitude and soil fertility) and habitat amount on bird abundances. Our results also revealed a northward increasing trend in functional diversity and species specialization. Habitat heterogeneity positively affected both bird abundance and species richness. Heterogeneity of land cover types was shown to promote abundances, while functional measure of landscape heterogeneity was positively connected to species richness. Land use with high anthropogenic activities, such as urban areas and cropland, negatively affected forest specialists and species sensitive to human activities. Main ConclusionsEnergy and habitat heterogeneity and amount are major mutually nonexclusive factors shaping bird communities in Finnish landscapes. Nonetheless, certain land use types favour some guilds while excluding others (for example, urbanized areas or cropland favouring open area species while excluding old-growth forest specialists), showing that biodiversity conservation is a matter of specialized landscapes. Furthermore, different measures of landscape heterogeneity demonstrated positive relationships with the studied bird guilds, highlighting the consistency of the species-heterogeneity relationship.

Climatic and biogeographic variables are often used as a proxy for tree genetic diversity, but local factors can also influence it. We propose that woodland age, presence of ancient trees, and population size could impact genetic diversity. Using the RBG Kew UK National Tree Seed Project as a study case, we examined how these factors are accounted for during seed collection. We found 42% of tree seed collections come from ancient woodlands and that 8.4% overlap with ancient trees. Sampled forest patches size ranges from few individuals to several thousand. We then carried out a pilot to examine the role of population size on functional traits variation, testing the relationship between population size and seed germination and seedling thermal stress sensitivity in three populations of the Betula pubescens Ehrh. complex. We found that seeds and seedlings from larger populations showed higher fitness and stress resistance. Our results highlight the importance of local factors to predict variation in functional traits, relevant for tree resilience. Existing seed collections of native species stored in conservation seed banks offer a valuable resource to explore these factors and improve our understanding of genetic diversity in tree populations, with implications for biodiversity conservation and forestry production.

Longitudinal data on disease susceptibility in forest trees are rare but essential for understanding host-pathogen dynamics and genetic variation in susceptibility traits. We present a long-term multisite common garden dataset quantifying susceptibility of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) to Dothistroma needle blight. The dataset comprises annual disease assessments collected from the same trees across 11 years, spanning 168 families and 21 Scottish provenances. This design enables partitioning of genetic and environmental sources of variation, evaluation of temporal stability in host response, and estimation of variance components and narrow-sense heritability of susceptibility. The data support analyses of phenotypic plasticity, provenance-level responses, and interactions between disease susceptibility and other adaptive traits. This resource will facilitate predictive modelling of host susceptibility under current and future environmental conditions.

Urban green areas often harbour numerous non-native urban trees, many of which have characteristics that predispose them to escape from cultivation and become potentially invasive. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk by creating favourable conditions for species that are currently climatically restricted. The potential risks for invasiveness of urban tree species in continental Europe are not yet known. Here, we provide a comprehensive risk screening of 34 non-native urban tree species in continental Europe, for both current and projected future climate scenarios. Using the Terrestrial Plant Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (TPS-ISK v2.4), we assessed invasion risk based on biogeography, ecology, and projected responses to climate change. Results showed that under current conditions, 10 species (29.4%) were categorised as high risk, 23 (67.6%) as medium risk and one (2.9%) as low risk. The inclusion of climate change projections increased the number of high risk species to 11, with seven species categorised as very high risk. These taxa exhibit strong ecological plasticity, high reproductive performance and broad environmental tolerance, which together with projected warming, emphasises their significant potential for further spread. Our results emphasise the urgent need for early detection, continuous monitoring and proactive management of non-native urban trees in Europe, especially those that are widely used in horticulture and forestry. By integrating invasion biology with climate change risk screening, this study provides an important basis for evidence-based policy and management strategies to mitigate future ecological and economic impacts of invasions by urban trees.

Ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi are well-recognized symbionts impacting tree health and ecosystem functioning globally, yet understanding of their timing of proliferation in soils across seasons and years remains limited. We analyzed monthly patterns of EcM fungal abundance and community structure over two years in five temperate monodominant forest plots via quantitative PCR and Illumina sequencing. We found that the phenological dynamics of EcM fungi differed significantly by host tree leaf habit, fungal exploration type, fungal genus, and soil moisture. Overall, total EcM fungal abundances based on qPCR consistently peaked in autumn, and were more dynamic in evergreen than deciduous plots, supporting ideas of surplus carbon and asymmetric above-belowground dynamics. Longer-distance exploration types peaked earlier and were more stable than shorter-distance types, suggesting an independent and supportive role in releasing spring nutrients. About half of 20 focal taxa consistently peaked in either autumn, summer, or spring, while others were either host- and/or year-dependent. Our findings highlight that phenology is a key EcM fungal trait best explained by both host and fungal contributions, and future studies across biomes should consider seasonal shifts and sampling to elucidate phenological traits. Summary- The timing of belowground production and seasonal community dynamics remain poorly understood for ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi. - We collected soils monthly for two years from five temperate monodominant forest plots. - Fungal production peaked in autumn, shorter-distance and evergreen-associated spanned wider ranges, and half of focal fungal genera showed seasonal preference, emphasizing autumn surplus carbon and spring nutrients from long-distance types. - Future studies should consider seasonal shifts when sampling EcM fungal communities, and forest carbon models should include asymmetric above-belowground phenology. Translated Summary (Spanish)- La fenologia de la produccion y composicion de comunidades de hongos ectomicorrizicos (EcM) es poco estudiada. - Recolectamos suelos mensualmente por dos anos de cinco parcelas mono-dominantes templados. - Produccion maxima de hongos ocurrio en otono, hongos asociados con arboles siempreverdes y de exploracion de corta-distancia observaron rangos mas amplios, y la mitad de generos de hongos focales observaron preferencia estacional, enfatizando extra carbono en otono y nutrientes en primavera de tipos larga-distancia. - Estudios deben considerar cambios estacionales para el muestreo de hongos EcM, y modelos de carbono deben incluir fenologia asimetrica entre hojas y hongos. Plain language summaryEctomycorrhizal fungi are critical for the global carbon cycle, but their seasonal and inter-annual growth patterns remain unclear. We sample soil DNA monthly over two years across five different monodominant temperate forest stands. We find an overall belowground peak in autumn, with significantly later growth under wetter conditions, more dynamism with evergreen trees, and distinct spring growth by longer-distance fungi.

Background and AimsClimate gradients influence seed morphology, emergence, and early life-history traits with cumulative impacts to individual fitness. For ex situ seed collections, which represent an invaluable repository of potential trait information for species management and conservation, climate data can guide preservation of adaptive variation and inform deployment strategies for restoration. Here we leverage a range-wide ex situ seed collection of critically endangered black ash seeds (Fraxinus nigra) to evaluate how climatic gradients shape variation in morphology and early life-history. MethodsTo test how climate of origin, seed morphology, and early life-history interact to impact first year fitness, high-throughput X-ray imaging and neural network-based segmentation were used to quantify variation in seed morphology for 701 maternal lineages spanning 76 populations across the range of F. nigra. Following this, a subset of seeds were used to establish a common garden experiment and quantify variation in emergence, early life-history transitions, and their cumulative impact to first-year survival and growth. ResultsOn average, differences within-population explained [~]43% of the variability in seed morphology, while among-population differences explained [~]14%. This suggests that substantial genetic variation exists within populations for natural selection to act upon and differences have evolved among populations. Climate associations indicated warmer and drier environments predicted heavier seeds with faster developmental transitions and increased first-year height. Together, climate of origin, seed mass, and timing of developmental transitions best predicted cumulative fitness, with populations from more continental environments exhibiting greater survival and first-year height accumulation on average. ConclusionsOverall, these results highlight the importance of climate of origin, seed traits, and early developmental transitions to first-year fitness in a perennial tree species. This work demonstrates how ex situ collections can be used to identify climatically structured trait variation and guide conservation strategies aimed at maintaining adaptive potential under environmental change.

Ongoing climate change will negatively impact tree populations unless they are able to acclimate to the changes in their local environment. Effective planning for climate adaptation management requires an understanding of the current state of local adaptation and physiological performance to assess whether populations are at risk of local extinction, to determine if seed movement is appropriate, and to select appropriate seed sources if intervention is needed. We established a new reciprocal transplant experiment (ACE, Adaptation to Climate and Environment) across a latitudinal gradient in North America to examine the impacts of warming on three bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) populations across much of the species range. We established common gardens in Minnesota, Illinois, and Oklahoma with seedlings grown from seeds collected within 50 km of each of those locations from a total of sixty maternal families. We aimed to 1) assess local adaptation in each of the populations using survival and size as fitness metrics, and 2) evaluate physiological responses to different environments along the latitudinal gradient. We found that northern populations are maladapted to hotter climates as evidenced by their low survival, growth, and photosynthetic rates in the warmest common garden. The southernmost population had the highest survival rate, growth rate, and fitness of the three populations in the southernmost garden, providing evidence for local adaptation to the warmest site. However, conditions in the middle garden resulted in the highest fitness and best physiological performance for all populations. Growth and survival were correlated in the middle garden but were decoupled in the northern and southern gardens. This decoupling is likely due to stress associated with more extreme climates at the ends of the gradient that led to greater resource allocation to survival than to growth. Our results suggest that southern seed sources may perform well in warmer conditions in the north brought on by climate change, which has important implications for managers assisting broadly ranged tree species in adapting to climate change.

Attributes of fire regimes are known to drive habitat suitability for many species in fire-prone environments. Comparatively little is known about how abiotic conditions (e.g. rainfall events, cumulative rainfall, drought) at the time of fire may affect long-term (>2-years) post-fire occurrence. We sought to a) establish whether the post-fire development of heathland habitat for the endangered mallee emu-wren is influenced by rainfall within 12-months before or after the most-recent fire, b) identify the preferred fire-age of heathland vegetation for the mallee emu-wren, and c) map those habitats most likely to support the species across a large reserve ([~]271,000 ha), Ngarkat Conservation Park, from which it has been extirpated. Using historical presence records, collected prior to the extirpation of mallee emu-wrens from the study area, we implemented a random-forest modelling approach to predict relative likelihood of occurrence (considered a proxy for probability of suitable habitat). Rainfall in the 12-months before and after fire had a positive effect on relative likelihood of mallee emu-wren occurrence. The development of high-quality mallee emu-wren habitat required at least 420 mm of rainfall in the 12-months prior to the most recent fire. Only 35% of Ngarkat received rainfall above this threshold prior to the most recent fire. Rainfall in the 12-months after fire positively influenced relative likelihood of mallee emu-wren occurrence, though the effect was less pronounced than pre-fire rainfall. Relative likelihood of mallee emu-wren occurrence peaked 15 years after fire, with an [~]10-year peak time window of relative occurrence (10-20-years). This study highlights that abiotic conditions at the time of fire, particularly rainfall in the 12-months preceding fire, have long-lasting impacts on relative probability of occurrence for this fire-sensitive species. Targeting fire management in ways that maximise post-fire occurrence of the mallee emu-wren - particularly by burning senesced habitat following periods of elevated rainfall - has potential to enhance conservation outcomes. Given the substantial and long-term impact of rainfall around the time of a fire identified in this study, short-term climatic conditions deserve greater attention in a range of ecosystems where managers aim to use fire to manipulate habitat for the benefit of fire-sensitive species.

Species have optimal environmental conditions, and ongoing climate warming is reshaping community composition. In particular, many ecosystems exhibit thermophilization, a shift toward species adapted to warmer conditions. However, this process is often slower in forests, leading to a mismatch between community composition and ambient temperature, referred to as climatic debt. Despite increasing attention, its effects on forest productivity remain unclear. Quantifying tree community responses to warming is therefore essential for predicting future forest dynamics and informing biodiversity conservation. In this study, we analyzed natural forests across Japan using data from the 3rd and 4th National Forest Inventory periods (2009-2018). We first assessed compositional consistency between survey periods using the Bray-Curtis index and excluded plots with high dissimilarity ([&ge;] 0.8). Species-specific thermal optima were estimated using species distribution models and used to calculate the Community Temperature Index (CTI). Thermophilization was quantified as the temporal change in CTI, while climatic debt was defined as the difference between CTI and mean annual temperature. We then examined the relationship between climatic debt and changes in aboveground biomass, used as a proxy for productivity, using linear mixed-effects models. We found a mean thermophilization rate of 0.005 {degrees}C yr-{superscript 1}. Despite this shift, climatic debt increased at an average rate of -0.022 {degrees}C yr-{superscript 1}, indicating a growing mismatch between climate warming and community thermal composition. Although thermophilization showed no statistically significant association with stand structure, it tended to vary with the proportion of small-diameter trees, suggesting the influence of multiple interacting drivers. Importantly, increasing climatic debt was significantly associated with declines in forest primary productivity, even after accounting for stand structure and regional variation. These results demonstrate that delayed thermal adjustment of tree communities can constrain forest productivity under ongoing climate warming, highlighting the importance of evaluating community-level thermal responses for sustaining forest ecosystem functioning.

Early management decisions in operational forestry are critical for plantation success because it strongly influences seedling quality at planting. Beyond shaping seedling morphology, nursery inputs can also restructure root-associated fungal communities which has consequences for nutrient acquisition, stress tolerance and disease suppression after planting. In this study, we altered nutrient and fungicide inputs based on mycorrhizal ecological theory and quantified the effects of these treatments on key dimensions of the growth performance of radiata pine seedlings. In parallel, we profiled the root-associated mycobiome, assigning fungal taxa to functional guilds and summarizing their richness, diversity, relative abundance and community structure. Using a composite performance index that integrates the key morphological and health measures into a single response variable, together with conventional statistical models with machine learning approaches, we identified management practises that promote both plant performance and a favourable root fungal community and determined the consistent microbiome changes linked to overall quality of the seedlings. These results suggest that microbial feedback loops occur even in highly managed nursery conditions. More broadly, by combining a composite performance index with predictive modelling, we provide a practical way to test complex management combinations and identify microbiome features associated with high-quality planting stock.

Accurate estimation of forest growing stock volume (GSV) at fine spatial scales is essential for sustainable forest management, carbon accounting, and local decision-making. However, traditional forest inventories often lack sufficient sampling density to provide reliable estimates for small areas. This study evaluates the performance of two small area estimation approaches: the Empirical Best Predictor (EBP) based on a nested-error linear regression model, and the Mixed-Effects Random Forest (MERF) for estimating GSV at the forest stand level using multi-source remote sensing data. The analysis was conducted in the Vallombrosa Nature Reserve (Italy), integrating field measurements from 101 plots with auxiliary variables derived from Sentinel-2 imagery and airborne LiDAR. Both methods were applied to estimate the mean and total GSV across 658 forest stands, many of which lacked direct observations. Model performance was assessed using spatial cross-validation, and uncertainty was quantified using root-mean-square error (RMSE). Results show that MERF outperformed EBP in predictive accuracy, achieving higher R2 (0.67 vs. 0.37) and lower RMSE (151 vs. 202 m3 ha{square}1). MERF also produced more stable and precise uncertainty estimates, with improved coverage of observed values. While both methods yielded comparable total GSV estimates, EBP exhibited greater variability and sensitivity to model assumptions. In contrast, MERF effectively captured non-linear relationships and handled multicollinearity among predictors, though at the cost of reduced interpretability and higher computational demand. Overall, findings highlight the advantages of integrating machine learning with mixed-effects modeling for SAE in forestry, particularly under conditions of sparse sampling and complex ecological variability.